The Indiana Fever head into the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup final on Tuesday, July 1, 2025, carrying momentum and star power into the Target Center in Minneapolis. They’ll go head-to-head with the defending Cup champions, the Minnesota Lynx, in what has become an enticing showdown with tournament glory and financial stakes in the spotlight. I have analyzed this game from all angles and you can continue reading to get my Fever vs Lynx prediction before the final of this competition.
Our Fever vs Lynx Prediction
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -5.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Indiana Fever @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: July 1, 2025, 8:00 pm ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: Prime Video
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx -5.5 | Lynx -250 / Fever +220 | 165.5 |
Key Storylines
- This game is the final of the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup in 2025. Along with the title that comes with a win here, the winning team splits $500,000, a nice bonus for this in-season tournament.
- The Fever have won two of their last three games coming into this final. They beat the Seattle Storm on the road in impressive fashion, before splitting a back-to-back against the LA Sparks and Dallas Wings.
- For the Lynx, Napheesa Collier stands out as the league’s top scorer at 24.4 ppg, shooting over 52% from the field. She adds 8.5 rpg, 3.6 apg, and elite defensive numbers, making her the clear favorite in the WNBA MVP race.
- Indiana dealt with off‑court noise after veteran DeWanna Bonner was waived and Caitlin Clark missed time due to injury. But the squad has hung tough and a cup win would propel them into the second half of the season.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first game between these teams this season. They will also play three times in the regular season starting in August.
- The Lynx are 7‑0 at home this season, while the Fever are just 4-4 on the road.
- Minnesota is 8-7 against the spread this year, while the Fever are 8-8 against the spread.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Clark | Under 8.5 assists | Clark is a great passer but could have a hard time against the league’s best defense. |
| Napheesa Collier | Over 22.5 points | The WNBA’s leading scorer should have a big night with so much on the line on Tuesday. |
| Aliyah Boston | Over 8.5 rebounds | Strong on the glass and could take advantage of the lack of elite bigs aside from Collier for the Lynx. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Lynx pace ranks second-slowest in the WNBA, while the Fever are sixth in the league in pace.
- Minnesota leads the league in defensive rating and net rating this season. They also rank third in offensive rating.
- Indiana is fourth in offensive rating, eighth in defensive rating, and sixth in net rating.
- Potential mismatch: Napheesa Collier should have too much size to be guarded by the wings of the Fever, while she is too quick for Aliyah Boston.
Indiana Fever vs Minnesota Lynx Model Projection
Score Projection: Indiana Fever 83 – Minnesota Lynx 90
Win Probability: Indiana 38%, Minnesota 62%
Final Thoughts
Minnesota’s home-court and efficiency edges, along with Collier’s MVP form, give them the advantage. Indiana will be a popular choice for casual bettors here, but I think the Lynx are the way to go in the betting markets on Tuesday night. Lay the points with Minnesota, as they should be able to win a second straight Commissioner’s Cup in convincing fashion.
